Aquino Tops October 2009 Pulse Asia Survey

If elections were held today, 44% of Filipinos would elect Liberal Party's Standard Bearer Noynoy Aquino III as president of the Philippines. This is according to Pulse Asia's most recent poll on Presidential Preference. The nationwide survey was conducted on October 22 to 30, 2009.

Far second is Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party (19%). Third is Chiz Escodero (13%), and at fourth is Erap Estrada who got 11%.

Aquino, who, in the previous surveys was not included among the choices, suddenly rose to "stardom" after her mother, former president Cory Aquino, died of colon cancer. After what seems to be a sympathetic gesture coming from the people, Noynoy Aquino became an instant contender for the presidency.

Meanwhile, despite Chiz Escudero's risky resignation from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) on October 2009, his rankings in the survey did not improve much.

Administration candidate Gibo Teodoro, however, maintained his standing at far below the list, with only 2%.

Chiz Quits

The news came as a big surprise to everyone.

Last week, Senator Loren Legarda has announced that she is no longer running for President, but instead run for Vice President under the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of business tycoon Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco, Jr.

With this development, everybody seemed and conditioned that Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero will finally emerge as the NPC's Standard Bearer for the 2010 Presidential Elections, forging a Chiz-Loren tandem, and quite a team to beat.

And just when everyone is awaiting the big formal announcement for the tandem, Senator Escudero announced Wednesday morning today, October 28, 2009 via a press conference in Club Filipino that he has quit as a member of the NPC.

Escudero cited three reasons of his decision:

1. First, that anyone aspiring for the presidency should not be part of any group.

2. Second, that anyone who wants to become president would not be able to perform his job if his hands and feet are tied and his eyes are blindfolded.

3. Third, that he could decide freely on the role he would play in the upcoming elections if he does not belong with any group.

Needless to say, this unexpected move caused quite a stir in the political landscape.

Escudero did not mention, however, if he is running for President next year.

Pulse Asia's Survey on the 2010 Elections

Pulse Asia releases its February 2009 Ulat ng Bayan survey for the 2010 elections.

To summarize, the survey states that if the elections were done on February, the following Presidentiables will make it to the top:

"Kabayan" Noli De Castro (19%)
"Chiz" Senator Francis Escudero (17%)
"Erap" Former President Joseph Estrada (16%)
"Mr. Sipag at Tiyaga" Senator Manny Villar (15%)

For the Senatoriables, the survey's top 5 are:

Jinggoy Estrada
Pia Cayetano
Mar Roxas
Miriam Santiago
Frank Drilon

While those who belong to the top 5 are old-timers in the senate, the survey also include "newcomers" in the list of can-be-senatoriables, including Edu Manzano, Korina Sanchez, Joe De Venecia, and Willie Revillame (yes, you've read it right. Willie is on rank 17-23).

Relative to this survey, I have previously posted a blog to give emphasis on the importance of funds, in other words, money, for the upcoming 2010 elections. As pointed out, since the Presidential Race seems tight and we don't expect a runaway winner, money and machinery will definitely play a big role for the winner.

Columnist Manolo Quezon, in his blog entry, In This Corner, provides a comprehensive analysis on this Pulse Asia February 2009 Survey. Manolo points out that while the Administration candidates are doing badly in the survey, the local allies will still play a big role in the final stretch. Which is true! So the Opposition could not yet stage a sound of victory at this moment. They have got to take care of their local allies.

To conclude, I would like to copy on The Professional Heckler's take on the Pulse Asia Survey:


"Vice President Noli De Castro topped the latest Pulse Asia survey with a 19 percent preference rating. He was followed by Sen. Francis Escudero, 17 percent, Joseph Estrada, 16 percent, Sen. Manuel Villar, 15 percent, Sen. Loren Legarda, 12 percent, Sen. Manuel Roxas II, 7 percent, and Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 6 percent. Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay got 2 percent while MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando got only one percent. The First Gentleman was luckier. He got five percent."


Heckler, you rock!

Pera At Pulitika

Napag-usapan na rin lang ang pera, umani ng batikos si Senator (and aspiring 2010 Presidential candidate) Manny Villar sa isang komento na binanggit niya sa isang interview. Sabi ni Villar:

"If you can't raise P1 billion, why even run?"

Reaksiyon naman ng ibang pulitiko (at aspiring presidentiables din):

Mar Roxas: people would elect the next president for the candidate’s platform of government and track record.

Chiz Escudero: it’s the people, and not money, that will elect a president.

Dick Gordon: "arrogant" statement.

In reality, tao pa rin ang pipili ng kanilang iboboto subalit kung iisipin, totoo namang malaking factor ang pera sa kandidatura. Sa nakaraang BARANGAY elections (emphasis sa salitang BARANGAY), may kilala akong nanalong kapitan na balitang gumastos ng humigit sa P500,000 para manalo. Kung sa isang maliit na yunit ng pamahalaan ay may mga taong handang gumastos ng ganoon kalaking halaga, hindi malayong kakailanganin nga talaga ng P1 bilyong piso para sa isang National campaign. In fact, sa airing time pa lang ng political campaign sa TV, gagastos ka na panigurado ng daang libong piso.

Ayon sa isang editoryal ng BusinessMirror,

While Villar’s remark may sound controversial, the reality is that finances will determine in large measure the outcome of next year’s election. In fact, Villar’s figure is the minimum amount required for a decent nationwide campaign, which is P2 billion to P3 billion, per Reuters’ estimate.

Those billions would go to building a nationwide political machinery up to the barangay level. Then the candidates would have to cover all the regions once the official campaign period starts next year. Campaign paraphernalia, such as streamers and handbills, as well as the all-important TV and radio ads, will substantially jack up the cost of running for the highest public office even more. And we’re not even talking of the money involved in surreptitious dagdag-bawas operations à la “Hello, Garci,” which the Commission on Elections (Comelec) swear will be a thing of the past—a situation fervently hoped for, but not necessarily believed.

Sa pinakahuling survey report na inilabas ng Pulse Asia, lumalabas na dikitan ang magiging labanan ng Presidential elections sa darating na 2010. Nangunguna sa survey si Noli De Castro (19%) at pumapangalawa naman si Chiz Escudero (17%). Muling lumitaw ang pangalan ni Erap Estrada (16%) sa pangatlong spot, habang pumang-apat naman si Manny Villar (15%). Kasunod naman sina Loren Legarda, Mar Roxas, Panfilo Lacson, Jejomar Binay at Bayani Fernando.

At dahil nga dikitan ang labanan, sinabi ng ilang political analysts na pinakamalaking magiging factor ang pera at ang pagkakaroon ng "wide and loyal" network.

Sa karanasan ng pulitikang pinoy, malayo pa ang lalakarin bago natin makita ang isang mas malinaw na scenario sa gaganaping halalan sa 2010. Marami pang pangalan ang magsusulputan, paniguradong mayroon pang magba back-out at tatakbo na lamang ng bise presidente o senador, magkakaroon pa ng lipatan portion/balimbingan portion sa mga partido, at makakakita pa tayo ng iba't ibang drama tungkol sa ating mga pulitiko.

Hindi maikakaila na malaki ang papel na gagampanan ng pera sa kandidatura ng mga pulitiko. Ngunit sa huli, ang boto pa rin ng taumbayan ang dapat na manaig. Sa gabay ng Panginoon, nawa ay mapili na nga natin ang tamang lider ng bansa.